Chinese New Year and peak freight season 2026: how the Asian calendar reshapes your shipments to Russia and the CIS

The same container leaving Shenzhen in February can spend two extra weeks on the road and cost noticeably more than the identical container in May. The carrier is not the reason — the calendar is. Asian manufacturing and freight run on their own rhythm: factories close for national holidays, ports fill up ahead of Western sales seasons, rates fall and then jump. For a manufacturer or supplier shipping to Russia and the CIS, that rhythm decides two practical things: whether your goods reach the border on the date written into the contract, and how much paperwork your buyer will demand from you before the vessel sails.

Contents

• Two calendars behind the season
• Chinese New Year: factories stop for a month
• Peak freight season: summer, autumn and the pre-New-Year weeks
• How the season stretches lead times and lifts prices
• When to accept the order: a month-by-month view
• The season at the Russian border: what your buyer will require
• Frequently asked questions

Two calendars behind the season

Seasonality is built from two different calendars, and confusing them is the usual mistake. The first is China's production calendar: when factories work, when they leave for national holidays, when labour is simply not there. The second is the demand calendar in logistics: when Western retailers buy for Black Friday, Christmas and the winter sales, which is what makes space on vessels and aircraft expensive.

The two overlap. The tightest stretch is where they meet: plants have not stopped yet ahead of their own New Year, while the rest of the world is already moving cargo for the winter holidays. That is why autumn and early winter feel expensive, slow and nervous all at once.

This concerns you even if you do not manufacture in China. If your components, packaging or contract assembly come from Chinese suppliers, the shutdown reaches your line with a delay. And if your cargo shares vessels, ports or container equipment with Asian export flows — which is true for most routes into Russia and the CIS — you pay the peak-season rate whether or not your own plant sits in Asia.

For your customer in Russia the logic is simple: the order date is counted not from the day it is convenient, but backwards from the day the goods must physically be in the warehouse, with a buffer for production, freight and customs clearance. The practical consequence for you is that purchase orders arrive earlier, ex-works dates are fixed harder, and a vague shipping window is read as a risk rather than as flexibility.

Chinese New Year: factories stop for a month

The main point on the calendar is Chinese New Year, the Spring Festival. In 2026 it falls on 17 February, with official public holidays in mainland China from 15 to 23 February. On paper that is around nine days, but the number has almost nothing to do with what happens on the factory floor.

Production actually stops for two to four weeks. Workers travel home in large numbers, many leaving one or two weeks before the holiday itself, so output starts sliding already at the end of January. After the holiday plants restart slowly: part of the workforce does not come back, new people are hired and trained, and many lines reach full capacity only by mid-March. All together the disruption window stretches to six or eight weeks around that date.

What this means in practice:

• orders confirmed in January for a February hand-over realistically leave in March;
• samples and new items launched before the New Year get finished only after the holiday;
• supplier prices are frequently revised upwards after the break, so they are agreed in advance.

There is a nuance by supplier type. Small workshops often restart earlier than large plants, but their quality floats more after the holiday, when part of the crew is new. That is why a buyer with a fixed shelf date will ask you, in writing and as early as November or December, to confirm your shutdown and restart dates — and will inspect the first post-holiday batch more carefully than usual. If your own supply chain runs through China, collect the same confirmations from your sub-suppliers before you commit to an ex-works date.

It is worth looking one year ahead as well. In 2027 Chinese New Year moves to 6 February, which means the preparation window opens already in January. The date is checked separately every year: it follows the lunar calendar and can shift by almost three weeks from one year to the next.

Peak freight season: summer, autumn and the pre-New-Year weeks

The New Year is not the only pause. China has several other public holidays, and each one brakes shipments for a few days. In 2026 these are Qingming, the day of remembrance, on 3–5 April, Labour Day on 1–3 May, the Dragon Boat Festival on 19–21 June and Golden Week from 1 to 7 October. Golden Week is second only to the New Year in impact: factories and logistics providers rest for a week, and the final sprint into the winter season starts immediately after it.

Demand-side logistics works in parallel. The high season for ocean freight is traditionally late summer and autumn, roughly July through October, when Western chains bring in goods for Halloween, Black Friday and Christmas. China's own 11.11 sale in November adds to it. In peak weeks carriers introduce seasonal surcharges, known as PSS and GRI, and space on vessels runs short. Then comes the pre-New-Year surge in December and January, when everyone tries to get cargo out before the factories stop. In those weeks port congestion and a shortage of empty containers in southern China are added on top of the rate, and transit times slip even with proven carriers.

Laid out month by month, the year looks roughly like this.

Seasonal peaks at Asian ports stretch transit times and push shipments to Russia and the CIS past their contract dates.

How the season stretches lead times and lifts prices

The season hits two things at once: the schedule and the money. Here is how.

Production lead time. Ahead of any long pause, plants are overloaded. An order that takes 20–25 days in a quiet month can slip in January, because the factory is clearing the queue before the holiday. After the stop, add the ramp-up time. It is reasonable to build in one or two extra weeks on top of the normal lead time for anything that falls into the pre-holiday window — and to say so before you confirm the date, not after.

Transit time. The transport leg itself also drifts in high season. Benchmarks by mode are: air from 3 to 10 days, rail from 18 to 30, road from 15 to 25, sea from 30 to 55 days. At the peak these figures should be read as the lower bound: vessels are full, containers are scarce, and queues grow at ports such as Shanghai and Ningbo.

A concrete example. A consignment that moves by sea in April and arrives in roughly a month and a half can, in the pre-New-Year peak, cost noticeably more and land late because of port queues. The same goods from the same supplier, ordered in spring with a buffer, are both cheaper and calmer. The only difference is the order date.

Cost. In high season carriers add surcharges and raise base rates. Sea freight is the cheapest option, but it is also the one whose price swings hardest at the peak, so it pays to plan it in advance and out of season. When the schedule is already burning, urgent air delivery is the way out, but it is more expensive at any time of year and doubly so at the peak. For volume cargo, the numbers are easiest to compare on our page about sea freight: by volume it is the most economical mode, provided it is booked well ahead.

When to accept the order: a month-by-month view

There is no universally best month, because different tasks have different priorities. But there is a working logic you can rely on.

If low cost and predictability matter, the calmest slot runs from March to June. Factories are at full capacity, freight carries no peak surcharges, transit times are clear. This stretch suits large, unhurried consignments where nobody wants to overpay.

If the goods are seasonal and must hit a specific date, count backwards from the shelf. For Western winter sales, production and shipping are placed in summer to avoid the autumn crush. For the Russian high season your buyer will also want a one- to two-month buffer rather than an order placed right against the selling date — which is exactly why their enquiries reach you months before the season you associate them with.

A separate word about the dangerous stretch: December, January, February. Do not put new items, samples or any order with an immovable date into this window. If it cannot be avoided, book freight space early and keep contact with all parties tighter than usual. Most of the trouble here is not force majeure — it is the absence of planning.

Checklist before you confirm a shipping date

1. check the Chinese New Year date for the year concerned — it floats;
2. count backwards from the buyer's warehouse date, not forward from today;
3. fix the transport mode early: sea is cheaper, but space is booked well in advance;
4. in high season, book freight earlier than your usual practice;
5. keep a time buffer on any shipment falling in December, January or February;
6. send the full document set to the buyer before the goods move, not after.

A simple planning rule: the ex-works date is not derived from today, it is derived backwards from the day the goods must be in your buyer's warehouse. Add production time, the transport leg and customs clearance, and in pre-holiday windows add one or two weeks on top. Handled that way, seasonality stops being a surprise and becomes an ordinary line in the plan.

The season at the Russian border: what your buyer will require

The season affects not only departure from Asia but also arrival in Russia. When cargo comes in bulk, ports and temporary storage warehouses are more heavily loaded, so any document error costs far more time than usual. In a quiet period a declaration is released quickly — as a general rule within 4 hours of registration, with registration itself within an hour, under article 119 of the EAEU Customs Code. In a peak week, with queues and additional checks, that pace is hard to hold. This is precisely why your buyer will ask for the document package in advance rather than on the day of arrival.

There is also a financial calendar behind their questions. From 1 January 2026 the base VAT rate in Russia rose to 22 per cent under Federal Law No. 425-FZ of 28 November 2025, while the reduced 10 per cent rate on a number of socially significant goods is retained. Import VAT is paid by the importer on the customs value, so the release date of a consignment moves their total cost — and that is what stands behind requests to shift an invoice date, revisit Incoterms or split a shipment. Separately, contracts above 3 million roubles are registered with the buyer's bank under Central Bank Instruction No. 181-I, with a unique contract number assigned within one business day. That means the signed contract and its annexes must be in your buyer's hands early, since amendments after the fact require re-filing.

Labelling requirements belong to the same calendar. The Chestny Znak traceability system is expanding in stages, tied to specific dates: sugar confectionery from 1 March 2026 (Decree No. 818 of 31 May 2025), and radio-electronic products phased in under Decree No. 1954 of 28 November 2025. If your goods fall under labelling, the codes are usually generated by the importer and applied at your factory before shipment — adding a step to your packing line that must be scheduled like a holiday, not improvised. Goods that arrive unlabelled cannot legally be sold: for a legal entity the fine for circulating unlabelled products is 50,000 to 300,000 roubles with confiscation, under article 15.12 of the Russian Code of Administrative Offences. That penalty sits with your buyer, which is why they will hold the shipment rather than let it move without codes.

In practice, your part of the schedule is the paperwork. Before the goods leave, the buyer will normally need: the contract and specification matching the payment terms; a commercial invoice and packing list with actual weights and quantities; a certificate of origin where a preference or a restriction depends on it; technical documentation, product composition and samples for EAC certification; an HS code agreed in advance, since a code that differs from the buyer's classification is one of the commonest reasons for a border hold; and, where applicable, labelling codes applied at the factory.

Rather than sorting all of this out against a deadline, the calculation of duties, the preparation of documents and the release itself can be handed to a customs representative on the Russian side. If your buyer works with one, your documents go through a single check before the goods sail — which removes most of the seasonal risk, especially when the port is already queueing. Our team handles customs clearance and full turnkey logistics for imports into Russia.

Frequently asked questions

Our plant is not in China. Why should the Chinese calendar concern us?
Through two channels. If any components, packaging or sub-assemblies come from Chinese suppliers, their shutdown reaches your line with a delay of several weeks. And most routes into Russia and the CIS share vessels, ports and container equipment with Asian export flows, so peak-season rates and congestion apply to your cargo regardless of where it was made.

How much buffer should we add to a shipping date in the pre-holiday window?
One to two weeks on top of the normal production lead time, plus the understanding that published transit times — air 3 to 10 days, rail 18 to 30, road 15 to 25, sea 30 to 55 — behave as a lower bound at the peak, not an average.

Why does our buyer ask for the contract and invoice so early?
Contracts above 3 million roubles are registered with their bank under Instruction No. 181-I before payments can run, and the customs document package has to be assembled before arrival. In a peak week, with congestion and extra checks, there is no time to fix a discrepancy at the border.

Who applies the Chestny Znak labels?
The codes are issued to the Russian importer, but for imported goods they are most often sent to the supplier and applied at the factory before shipment. Applying them after arrival means an extra handling stage and lost days; selling without them is prohibited and carries a fine of 50,000 to 300,000 roubles with confiscation.

What is the safest period to place a large order?
March to June. Factories are at full capacity, freight has no peak surcharges, and transit times are predictable. December, January and February are the worst window for new items, samples and any date that cannot move.

Summary: the season is not an obstacle, it is an input

Over the years I have seen the same pattern again and again: supply problems almost never come from the season itself, they come from the fact that somebody forgot about it. The calendar is predictable. Chinese New Year is known years ahead, the freight high season repeats from one year to the next. That means it can and should be written into the plan in advance.

My advice to suppliers is straightforward. Derive the ex-works date backwards from the date your customer needs the goods in their warehouse, and try to place large, unhurried production runs in the quiet stretch from March to June. If a shipment unavoidably falls into a pre-holiday window, do not economise on early freight booking and keep a buffer on the dates. And send the document set — contract, invoice, packing list, origin and technical documentation — before the goods move, so that customs clearance in Russia is a formality rather than a fire drill.

If it helps, we will build the schedule around your product and calculate the logistics with the season factored in. Leave a request for a consultation and we will advise when it is cheaper to ship and by which mode.

Tell us the delivery date your buyer needs and we will build the freight and customs schedule around the seasonal peaks.

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Read also:

• Goods That Sell in Russia All Year: What Steady Demand Means for Your Shipments
• Exporting to Russia and the CIS in 2026: what your buyer now requires from your shipment
• Shipping to Russia: the contract, documents and payment terms your buyer will require
• Shipping to Russia: how to protect your delivery time and your cargo

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